We have a UKIP Thanet District Council but a Conservative MP

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For those who enjoy the maths behind the headlines or have been enjoying #thanetrigged I can share with you this extract from a much larger spreadsheet of results.

In the South Thanet parliamentary constituency there are two wards that are part of Dover District Council (by the way Dover are responsible for elections in that area) and fourteen wards as part of Thanet District Council. These two Dover wards have an electorate of over 11,000 people who overwhelmingly vote conservative. The liberal party are the second choice in this area and the Liberals probably split their vote, backing either the Tory or Labour candidates in the general election.

The local election results are published by ward to it is tricky to compare that to the Parliamentary result for various reasons, nevertheless it gives a good overall picture.

Some things that you should know before studying the figures too closely are:

  • wards may have 1,2 or 3 seats with voters being able to cast as many votes up to the number of seats.
  • voters, however, often did not cast all their votes.
  • In some wards the main parties of Labour, UKIP or Conservatives did not stand as many candidates as seats.
  • local factors and personalities can swing votes for local councils.

The remaining 57,000 voters in Thanet South cast an large majority of their votes in the Thanet District Council (TDC) local elections for UKIP councillors (36% of all votes), 31% were cast for Tories and 27% for Labour.

If you take the all the votes cast by the South Thanet residents in the local elections you will find the results closely match the result in the South Thanet Parliamentary election.

  • 31% UKIP
  • 37% Conservative
  • 24% Labour
  • 8% Others

Which ever party you vote for the figures on a ward by ward basis are useful.

Who defeated Farage? The areas of Little Stour, Ashstone, Sandwich and Broadstairs.

Ramsgate and Margate welcomed the message from UKIP.

Here is the table: I will make the spreadsheet available for others but I’m still working on it.

                 
Electorate for Parliamentary Candidate for SOUTH Thanet – Votes cast by Ward in District Council elections May 2015                
                 
District Ward Electorate
2015
No of seats UKIP
Votes
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Dover Little Stour and Ashstone 5,532 3 0 7,199 943 2,044  
Dover Sandwich 5,644 3 1,796 5,488 975 1,855  
    11,176 6 1,796 12,687 1,918 3,899 20,300
        9 62 9 19  
Thanet Beacon Road 3,245 2 1,322 1,442 1,366 95  
Thanet Bradstowe 3,229 2 1,306 1,895 1,100 104  
Thanet Central Harbour 5,425 3 3,138 2,062 2,879 1,929  
Thanet Cliffsend and Pegwell 3,723 2 1,870 2,004 873 278  
Thanet Cliftonville East 5,018 3 4,221 3,931 1,828 429  
Thanet Cliftonville West 4,429 3 3,029 1,636 2,408 551  
Thanet Eastcliff 4,819 3 3,090 1698 2,551 985  
Thanet Kingsgate 1,759 1 370 675 227 0  
Thanet Nethercourt 3,390 2 1,773 664 1,377 0  
Thanet Newington 3,186 2 1,729 753 1,441 0  
Thanet Northwood 4,809 3 3909 1,993 2,414 0  
Thanet Sir Moses Montefiore 3,462 2 1,600 1,062 1,536 261  
Thanet St Peters 5,515 3 3,346 4,272 2,694 114  
Thanet Viking 5,397 3 3,027 4,893 2,856 230  
  TDC Total 57,406 34 33,730 28,980 25,550 4,976 93,236
exc dover Vote percent     36 31 27 5
         
           
inc dover total all 68,582 40 35,526 41,667 27,468 8,875 113,536
        31 37 24 8

Of course, in these figures many people had 3 votes, some had 2 and a small number only had one. If you weight them as if everyone had three votes the gap between votes for UKIP and Conservatives becomes wider, 40% and 30%. For the reasons listed above, however, this method of weighting can’t be guaranteed to give us accurate or meaningful information. It could be more revealing to look at individual wards in more detail. I shall do that in future posts.

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2 thoughts on “We have a UKIP Thanet District Council but a Conservative MP

    flaxdoctor said:
    May 13, 2015 at 5:31 pm

    Check your maths please – in the Dover ward of Little Stour & Ashstone you’ve reported zero UKIP votes and 7,199 Conservative votes.

    Quite odd from an electorate of 5,532 – and possibly sufficient to reverse your claimed result.

    Like

      mrstaraplumbing responded:
      June 1, 2015 at 9:33 pm

      Not odd. There were no UKip candidates in that ward and as there were 3 seats each voter could vote up to 3 times in that ward (local election). This was explained in the written part of my blog.

      I will try to return to this spreadsheet within the next few days to share more information. There are various ways of examining the votes.

      Like

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